Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Why Supernauts is not going to fly

Supernauts is a game made by Finnish game studio Grand Cru. The game has been in the development at least two years; I first heard it back in early 2012 when I was visiting Start-Up Sauna in Helsinki. It is the game that has been anticipated by the Finnish gaming community and personally, by me.

The game has been under testing in New Zealand, Canada and bunch of other countries at least from October 2013 (the what I have found out from App Annie records).

To describe the game in the shortest form, it's a game which mixes game-play features from Minecraft and Farmville. In essence, the goal of the game is to build and upgrade player's own little lot of land in the space by producing different kinds of materials using special machinery which produces them, solve puzzles in mission mode and play together with friends (which means visiting other player's land, give gifts and chat).




It is the game that in paper, sounds like a dream come true to casual / mid-core gamer like me who doesn't have so much free time to invest into more hard core games, but still want to do something creative, engaging and social with ease of current smartphones and tablets. It is the game that features stunning casual graphics, great sounds and full-fledged 3D-camera which can be rotated, zoomed and pivoted. The production speeds, in-game currency, progression and social elements are also implemented in a way that at least I couldn't find any major bottlenecks in them.


Better quality download ranks of Supernauts here.



Better quality grossing ranks of Supernauts here.

Still, in my honest opinion, it feels that the game misses something. Something which would tie all of those great features together, engage players to the game and keep them engaged. This notion of mine was confirmed when I fetched the estimations from App Annie's portal which clearly shows that the game could be much better in terms of download or grossing ranks. The game has hovered between #20 - #390 of Simulation and Adventure categories in Canadian App Store. In addition, the graphs of download ranks tell that the game is not taking off because the rank position in the download ranks decrease drastically after the release exposure (either by featuring or user acquisition) of new update of the game.

Consequently, the grossing rank features similar phenomenon; curves are shifting rapidly downwards and upwards when new content is added and new user acquisition campaigns started to get big enough cohorts to test new features and updates to the game. Unfortunately as of today, the curve tells their blunt and ruthless truth: lines are going downwards.

Missing Link

So what causes the game, which is created by experienced professionals, developed in the country whose drinking water should contain something which creates likes of Supercell and Rovio, and financed by sharp and cautious investors who do rigorous analysis of the capabilities of the team and profitability of the product(s), to showcase serious performance issues?

In my opinion, it is not the monetization aspects, not the graphics, sounds or bugs in the game and not even the camera which - in it's own right - might cause more casually oriented players to leave the game. 

The key to problems is the core loop of the game and its inherent social mechanics.

Core Loop & Social Mechanics


First of all, the core loop of the game doesn't differ much from the core-loop of first social simulation games, e.g. Farm Ville. Core loop of Supernauts consists of following actions.

1. Producing resources. The game features different kinds of resources which the player has to produce in order to progress in the game. Let's call the first resource type as naturals which are produced either in Claymaker (clay), in Logmaker (log / timber), in Stonemaker (stone) or in similar kinds of makers. These naturals are then used to produce more refined resources (materials) such as brick, stone, cement, paper and all sorts of different materials which are produced in different types of Bots. When player progresses, he will need to mix also the materials together in the Bots in order to make even better materials for his use.

The makers, bots and production of resources will cost coins (soft currency) and will take time.

After player has produced resources, he can decide whether to 1) sell them in Block Exchange (to virtual buyers in the game, not to real human players), 2) to use them in the quests or 3) use them to upgrade player's own asteroid.

2a. Selling resources.  Selling resources is typical feature of social simulation & mgmt games; you produce the goods with the cost of money and you sell the goods and you get money. Simple and effective, ain't it? Well, to be honest, it would be if the same mechanic wouldn't be operated already in plethora of other games already starting from Zynga's Facebook games like Farmville 2 and the likes.

So in short, players can sell their resources to the randomly generated virtual customers in Block Exchange. Customers and their needs in Block Exchange will expire in certain time-frames which could be a great for increasing engagement, but unfortunately the user has to initiate requests of new customers after the old ones have been expired. Therefore, the game cannot send any notifications to the player to communicate the arrival of new customers.

Players can sell their resources in Block Exchange 


2b. Use resources in quests. Quests are small missions which consists of similar smaller actions than upgrading player's own asteroid. Typically the player has to complete some unfinished construction of a building when he unlocks more land around his asteroid. In reward of completing a quest, the player gets coins, experience and game's own reputation units; "fanciness". (Sorry for blunt translation - I don't know what "fantsut" means in English since I only have the Finnish version in my device).


2c. Construct more buildings  Player's third option for using the resources is use them to make more buildings onto his asteroid. The more and better resources the player uses to construct buildings, the more reputation - fanciness - the player will get.

Below you can find the visualization of the core loop. Better quality picture of it here.




Summary

To summarize my finding, Supernauts' core loop and social mechanics are not optimal for following reasons:

1. Old, familiar core loop. Although Grand Cru has invested a lot of money into developing a game which looks amazing in high-end mobile devices with Retina displays, it doesn't change the fact that exactly the same core loop has been used in several other games already.

Result: players will quickly realize old core loops inside the games and the fact there isn't anything new under the hood compared to much older games already out there. Just improving graphics doesn't make the core loop any more engaging than they are in already published games.

2. No skills required. Supernauts is a game where you don't have to be particularly skilful in order to progress more rapidly in the game which is why the game is not engaging for contemporary mobile gamers. In my opinion mobile platforms and consumers will go more and more towards direction where it is not sufficient any more to hold on to shallow core loops where players just produce stuff, sell stuff and buy stuff in order to progress faster - or use money to do the same.



Sadly, even if the player would be more tolerant towards the mechanics and grind their way up the ladders of the game, the core loop doesn't get any more exciting. Sure, there comes more and more different kinds of resources and machines which produce new kinds of resources but that's it, the basic actions (produce, sell, build) of the game doesn't get any fascinating after the first week of gaming experience.

Result: players will see through that shallow loop which is based on busywork and will not spend any more time in the game.

3. Shallow social mechanics. In the game, players can visit other players' home bases (asteroids), give them gifts (limited amount of resources), sell ice-cream to citizens of fellow player and to chat with other players in real-time. Unfortunately these actions which players are able to do in the game are not enough for conscious contemporary player and consumer.

Players are already got used to much stronger social mechanics which can be found already in Clash of Clans (donations inside clans, attacking other players), Hay Day (selling goods to other players, helping other players in their quests) and Candy Crush Saga (seeing how far friends are already).

Result: players want to collaborate, compete and discover together in the games, not just co-exist in the game.

For these reasons I assume that the game will not fly very high. Only way to change this state is to change the core loop of the game which cannot be done post-release.  But let's see, it is interesting to see how things will evolve for Supernauts.


Thursday, January 16, 2014

How The Simpsons - Tapped Out is making money




Recent news about EA’s new The Simpsons – Tapped Out game shows that tablet-optimized social game earned more than $23 million during Q3 2012.

So what makes Tapped Out so engaging gaming experience that it a) retains users and b) monetizes them so that it makes so big numbers for EA? Let’s check it out!

The back-story of the game is that Homer accidentally was so engaged into playing the tablet game of Tapped Out that he forgot to watch out nuclear plant meters which of course caused plant to explode and blow away whole Springfield. Player’s goal is to help Homer to rebuild Springfield and invite the old inhabitants back to Springfield.

Look and feel of the game is genuine Simpson-style. Game uses same graphical style, character voices and the humor which people has used to experience when watching The Simpsons on TV. The controls of game itself are well optimized for touch devices; touch controls are quick and accurate and user interface logic suits well for mobile devices with large screens.

Game has two in-game currencies, namely the usual soft currency which in this case is cash and the hard currency which is branded in the Simpson-style as donuts. Soft currency is the primary currency of the game and player can buy most of the items with soft currency except some special buildings and items. Player can earn only small amounts of hard currency in the game by leveling up or inviting friends. Hard currency is mainly used for speeding up and to buy some premium items.

Core Loop

The game features one dimensional core loop. The loop consists of building more building to player’s own town and collecting most well-known characters of the franchise by that. Constructing the buildings take time and money, but earns experience to the player. Collecting different characters compels to humans primal “hunt & gather” instinct which is why these kinds of loops are very successful in games.

The more buildings player can construct to town, the more taxes (cash + XP) he can collect from them. Different buildings have different waiting times which player has to wait (or pay) in order to collect taxes. Also, different buildings have different amounts of taxes which can be collected from them.

Another element to the core loop is managing the life of the inhabitants. Every character in the town has his / hers own little “yellowish” chores to do in the game. In general the chores  do not affect the appearance or core-loop of the game, but are more like
busywork; keeping players busy and adding another monetization layer to the game but at the same time, creating emotional bonds to the characters and creating feeling of “my town”. In my opinion busy-work don't add the value of the game but still they are quite widely used throughout social games.


Lisa's chore-list = busywork
In addition to basic core loop, the game features also mechanic called “Conform-o-meter”. Conform-o-meter measures how well player can grow town so that special meters fill up. These meters include e.g. Consumerism, Vanity and Socialism among others and they measure how well the inhabitants can go to shopping, how well decorated the town is and how well player has made friends and visited their towns. Game rewards the player for reaching the meters with added money and XP.


Visit my town! a.k.a the Virality

Some would want to know how the social aspects show up in the game because – after all – this is social game. So let’s dive and see how social this game truly is.

Game includes popular social hooks / invites. This means that player can invite friends to join as his neighbors by using channels such as EA’s own Origin -network, Facebook, Google Mail or iOS device’s contacts. Everyone has to join to Origin in order to use social features, but luckily the registration process in-game is fairly easy to do.
View from the neighbourhood

Tapped Out’s only social feature inside the game is the ability to visit player’s friends’ towns. In current version of Tapped Out, players visit their friends’ towns in order to send Valentine’s Day cards to the friends and thus helping friends and themselves. Cards are sent by clicking (maximum three times a day per town) the buildings in the town. By clicking buildings players gain more experience, cash and hearts for themselves and for their friends.  Hearts are special kind of in-game currency which players can use to purchase special Valentine’s Day items (limited time around Valentine’s Day). Sending Valentine’s Day cards to friends is easy and rewarding way to integrate the social aspect in the game since it compels users to invite their friends to the game as well.

Sadly this is as far as the game gets in the social mechanics. It’s sad because social mechanic doesn't really affect any other part of the game than the player receiving more experience and in-game currency. Secondly the only feature which the game includes in terms of social aspects is exactly the same thing what e.g.  Zynga did back in the days with their first Facebook games including FarmVille.

It would have not taken much effort to introduce little bit evolved social mechanic to the game where users could help their friends by integrating the help features more into the core loop of the game. 

The Monetization


It’s interesting to see the level of of the cheapest currency-pack goes up and up when the platforms and games evolve. Before iPhone was launched back in the days, Travian, Farmville and bunch of other social games started at 0,49€ currency packs. Now the usual starting price seems to be something like 4 to 5 euros.

In Tapped Out, the minimum price for currency pack is 1,79€ which is mystery for me why that is so low. 
In Tapped Out, player pays for speeding up the progress (constructions and chores) of the game as well as by paying from some special items and buildings. And there’s a LOT of items you can buy only with hard currency. From most expensive item the player has to pay 250 donuts and all the premium stuff together is worth of 2743 donuts. With a maximum one-time IAP of 2400 donuts wih 89,99€

Because the game is so well optimized for DAU (as I explain later), the game could monetize better the players who doesn't want to wait. Now all the waiting is tied to the max 24-hour cycle which decreases the conversion rate from players to payers. 

Engagement

Biggest element for high engagement and thus retention rates are well balanced core-loop and compelling, tablet-optimized gameplay. Core loop is designed to keep DAU high because every task of the characters, building & tax income times of the buildings doesn’t exceed 24h. In addition, the way the rewards of the tasks of the characters, finished buildings and send / received Valentine’s Day cards are showed to the player is very compelling. It’s very rewarding to come back in the next day and tap & see how the rewards fly to oneself on the screen of iPad.

Scratch-R tickets. Can you scratch the itch?

In addition to core loop, Tapped Out includes basic engagement features. First, there are the daily rewards which reward players with money for coming back daily. The cash rewards increases daily for a week and in the last day there is special lottery prize available for player.  After one week the reward loops starts again from the beginning.

Another engagement feature is Daily “Scratch-R” scratching tickets which players can buy with soft currency once per day and if they want buy more, they have to pay hard currency. These kinds of luck-elements are especially popular in Asian countries (according author’s own references) and may monetize very well there.

1st gen social game in 3rd gen platform

I think that Tapped Out is the iteration of 1st gen social game which means that the social aspects of the game doesn't really add value to the core game mechanics but rather just rewards  the player for visiting their friends town with in-game currency.

I think the game has very good retention rates and it monetizes mainly from players who would like to buy the premium stuff or the Asian players for scratching those tickets. It could do better if the game’s progression would be designed to slow down (= longer waiting) after some while from beginning of the game to create primed to spend moments.

The retention rates could be quite easily pulled even higher by enabling players to upgrade their buildings or create ad-hoc relationships between the character of their town. Now the game doesn't give any visual feedback on the progression other than giving and showing piles of in-game currency to players which they can buy more buildings.

Apart from the monetization and retention – or in conjunction with them – the game could do a hell of a lot better with integrating social aspects into the game. The first thing would have been to think easy and creative ways to collaborate and integrate fabulous Simpson characters into it. What could have been funnier than to find and catch (read: tap) “the lost cats of Crazy Cat Lady” and send them back to a friend from whose Crazy Cat’s are they? Or how about enabling players to create their own baseball league championships after they have managed to build the stadium and invite their friends to take part in it? There’s a tons of more good and easily implementable ideas from the franchise which could have been integrated into the game to create more social game.

Apart from the social aspects, I think EA is quite pleased with the numbers what the game has done but I sincerely hope that EA has some ideas waiting to get implemented so that the players would get more value from this social game. Now it just seems that EA has went easy but hollow way of creating social game by copying the basic design principles from early Zynga games which creates good numbers for EA due to high discoverability of The Simpsons franchise, heavy user acquisitions and 24h optimized (but still hollow) progression loop. Simply put it's fist gen social game on a third gen platform.